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NE

NEXTERA ENERGY PARTNERS, LP (NEP)·Q2 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q2 2024 net income attributable to NEP was $62 million, adjusted EBITDA $560 million, and CAFD $220 million; operating revenues rose to $0.36B from $0.293B YoY, driven largely by stronger wind resource .
  • NEP declared a quarterly distribution of $0.9050 per common unit (annualized $3.62), and reaffirmed 5%–8% distribution growth with a 6% target through at least 2026; importantly, management reiterated it does not expect to need an acquisition in 2024 to hit the target .
  • Run-rate guidance was maintained: adjusted EBITDA $1.9–$2.1B and CAFD $730–$820M at YE 2024 (reflecting CY2025 portfolio contributions); payout ratio commentary shifted to “mid- to high 90s” through 2026 on the call .
  • Key drivers: existing projects +$62M adjusted EBITDA YoY on favorable wind (approx. 103% of LTA vs 88% last year), partly offset by lower solar generation and the impact from the Texas pipeline sale (-$46M adjusted EBITDA, -$43M CAFD) .
  • Ongoing cost-of-capital work and CEPF buyouts remain a narrative point; management expects to share more “over the next few quarters,” with private capital among options to improve NEP’s financing profile .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Stronger wind resource and existing project performance: wind ~103% of long-term average vs 88% last year, lifting existing project adjusted EBITDA by ~$62M YoY .
  • NEP delivered “solid financial performance” and can meet its 6% distribution growth without acquisitions in 2024: “We continue to expect that NextEra Energy Partners will not need an acquisition this year” .
  • Liquidity and near-term maturity management: NEP completed NEP Renewables II buyout (~$190M) and repaid 2024 convertible maturity; post a $700M holdco repayment, liquidity stands at ~$2.7B .

What Went Wrong

  • Solar generation was lower, partially offsetting the wind tailwind at existing projects .
  • Texas pipeline sale reduced adjusted EBITDA and CAFD by ~$46M and ~$43M, respectively, versus prior-year portfolio .
  • High payout ratio commentary (mid- to high 90s) suggests tighter distribution coverage and reinforces the need to optimize cost of capital and address remaining convertible equity portfolio financing obligations .

Financial Results

MetricQ4 2023Q1 2024Q2 2024
Operating Revenues ($USD Billions)$0.232 $0.257 $0.360
Operating Income / EBIT ($USD Millions)$(53) $(21) $66
Net Income Attributable to NEP ($USD Millions)$112 $70 $62
Diluted EPS – Continuing Operations ($)$(0.35) $0.75 $0.66
EBIT Margin %(22.8%) (8.2%) 18.3%
Net Income Margin %48.3% 27.2% 17.2%

Notes: EBIT Margin % and Net Income Margin % calculated from cited operating revenues and EBIT/net income.

KPIs

KPIQ4 2023Q1 2024Q2 2024
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$454 $462 $560
CAFD ($USD Millions)$86 $164 $220
Quarterly Distribution ($/unit)$0.8800 $0.8925 $0.9050

Operational drivers (Q2 2024): New projects contributed ~$39M adjusted EBITDA and ~$9M CAFD; existing project adjusted EBITDA +$62M YoY on favorable wind; Texas pipeline divestiture reduced adjusted EBITDA by ~$46M and CAFD by ~$43M .

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
LP Distribution Growth TargetThrough at least 20265%–8% with 6% target 5%–8% with 6% target Maintained
Payout RatioThrough 2026Mid-90s Mid- to high 90s Slightly raised (more conservative coverage)
4Q24 Annualized Distribution (payable Feb 2025)4Q24$3.73 per unit $3.73 per unit Maintained
Run-rate Adjusted EBITDAYE 2024 (reflecting CY2025)$1.9–$2.1B $1.9–$2.1B Maintained
Run-rate CAFDYE 2024 (reflecting CY2025)$730–$820M $730–$820M Maintained
Need for 2024 Acquisition2024Not needed to achieve 6% Not needed to achieve 6% Maintained
Growth Equity RequirementTimingNot before 2027 Not before 2027 Maintained

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicQ4 2023 (prior)Q1 2024 (prior)Q2 2024 (current)Trend
Cost of capital/CEPF buyoutsTexas pipeline sale completed; proceeds to fund near-term CEPF buyouts; YE24 run-rate introduced Exploring alternatives incl. private capital; growth equity not needed until 2027 “All options on the table”; expect updates “over the next few quarters” Continued focus; timeline clarity improving
AI/data center/hyperscaler demandBacklog and repower plans; early positioning Record solar/storage origination; ~3.5 GW tech portfolio in operation and ~3.5 GW backlog; 15% data-center demand CAGR view 3.0 GW added to backlog; 860 MW with Google; ~7 GW total with tech/data centers (3 GW in service; ~4 GW backlog) Accelerating pipeline; multi-year visibility (2026–2028)
Supply chain/tariffs (AD/CVD)Not highlighted in releaseDetailed view: diversified suppliers; risks manageable; domestic capacity rising; minimal bifacial exposure “We’re not impacted” by AD/CVD; scale enables risk transfer to suppliers Risk management strengthening
Asset recycling/private capitalSale of Texas pipelines; recycling capital Private capital considered to address back-end obligations Active exploration; Blackstone $900M partial interest in 1.6 GW portfolio (NEE side) underscores demand for assets Strong market demand for assets
RepoweringsIdentified ~985 MW through 2026 Announced additional ~100 MW; now ~1,085 MW identified Reiterated organic growth via repowerings Steady execution
Distribution policyBase reset to $3.52 annualized; 6% target $0.8925 declared; 6% target affirmed $0.9050 declared; 6% target affirmed; payout mid-high 90s Incremental increases; coverage tighter

Management Commentary

  • “NextEra Energy Partners had solid financial performance in the second quarter… We continue to expect that NextEra Energy Partners will not need an acquisition this year to achieve its targeted limited partner distribution per unit growth rate.” – John Ketchum .
  • “Second quarter adjusted EBITDA was $560 million and cash available for distribution was $220 million… existing projects grew by approximately $62 million year-over-year, driven primarily by favorable wind resource.” – NEP management .
  • “The partnership’s 6% distribution growth target remains for now… does not need an acquisition-related financing in 2024… and does not need growth equity until 2027.” – NEP management .
  • “We are… continuing to look at all options to secure a competitive cost of capital… we will share more in the coming quarters.” – John Ketchum .

Q&A Highlights

  • Cost of capital and financing plan: Management is exploring private capital and other options to address CEPF obligations; timeline “over the next few quarters” without a firm deadline .
  • Operating drivers: Wind resource ~103% of LTA boosted existing project EBITDA; lower solar generation partly offset; Texas pipeline sale reduced EBITDA/CAFD contributions .
  • Liquidity and maturities: NEP completed NEP Renewables II buyout (~$190M), repaid 2024 convertible maturity, paid down $700M holdco debt; liquidity ~ $2.7B .
  • Supply chain/tariffs: NEP not impacted by AD/CVD filings; scale and contracting transfer tariff risks to suppliers .
  • Asset demand: Strong investor appetite highlighted by Blackstone’s ~$900M partial interest in a 1.6 GW portfolio (NEE side), underscoring asset market strength .

Estimates Context

  • Wall Street consensus (S&P Global) for Q2 2024 EPS and revenue could not be retrieved due to missing Capital IQ mapping for NEP; thus, estimate comparisons are unavailable. Values from S&P Global were unavailable.
  • Given the strong wind resource tailwind and the pipeline divestiture headwind, models may need to adjust project-level assumptions, payout ratios, and CAFD coverage trajectory .

Indicative Comparison (consensus unavailable)

MetricQ2 2024 ActualConsensus EstimateDifference
Diluted EPS – Continuing Ops ($)$0.66 N/A*N/A
Operating Revenues ($USD Billions)$0.360 N/A*N/A

*Consensus data unavailable from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Q2 was operationally solid: adjusted EBITDA and CAFD rose YoY on strong wind; distribution increased to $0.9050, with 6% annual growth target reaffirmed .
  • Near-term growth is organic and focused on repowerings; no acquisitions needed in 2024; growth equity not needed until 2027, reducing near-term financing risk .
  • Coverage is tight (mid- to high 90s payout ratio), heightening the importance of cost-of-capital improvements and CEPF solutions; expect updates over the next few quarters .
  • Portfolio mix shift and divestiture impacts: the Texas pipeline sale lowers EBITDA/CAFD vs prior year, but wind resource and new projects are offsetting; investors should watch solar generation normalization .
  • Strong demand visibility: 3.0 GW added to backlog in the quarter, including 860 MW with Google; ~7 GW with tech/data center customers provides medium-term line-of-sight (2026–2028) .
  • Supply chain/tariff risks are actively managed; NEP’s scale and contracting reduce AD/CVD and bifacial tariff exposures, lowering execution risk .
  • Trading implications: near term, the stock’s narrative should hinge on clarity of financing strategy and payout sustainability; medium term, execution on repowerings and realization of backlog into CAFD underpin the distribution growth path .

Appendix: Prior Quarter Data (for Trend)

  • Q1 2024: Operating revenues $0.257B; net income attributable $70M; EPS (cont.) $0.75; adjusted EBITDA $462M; CAFD $164M; quarterly distribution $0.8925 .
  • Q4 2023: Operating revenues $0.232B; net income attributable $112M; EPS (cont.) $(0.35); adjusted EBITDA $454M; CAFD $86M; quarterly distribution $0.8800 .

Press Release Attempts

  • NEP press releases dated July 10, 2024 (release date announcement) and June 18, 2024 (investor meetings) were listed but could not be read due to database inconsistencies; core Q2 results and outlook are fully captured via the 8-K Exhibit 99 and transcript [List IDs 3, 4], .